Sunday, January 4, 2015

Stopped out... Next!

Do you want to be successful in trading in 2015?

If you have an edge then all you have to do is to follow the rules strictly pull the trigger every time you see that edge, if stopped out, just wait for the next setup and make sure you take it when it shows up.

If your STOP LOSS is not hit then stay in the trade and trail it until the market takes you out of the trade or your target is tested, it's as simple as that.

The problem is what most traders do instead is to skip the next trade when they get stopped out once, or they either try to outsmart the market by trying to buy it "cheaper" then what their edge is telling them and end up missing the trade by a couple of ticks or they just skip the trade due to the fear of getting stopped out again...

When they use their edge and take the trade another decision theys need to make is about whether they will scale out or not. Usually the best decision is to always use the SAME strategy as they did on the previous trade. If the trader feels better by scaling out, then they should scale out on all trades, but in my experience I see that most of the time "all in, all out traders" or "full size traders" do better than those who like to scale out. Of course these traders who hold FULL SIZE get stopped out more often but when they're right they make up for all the losses and much more, putting them ahead of those who prefer to scale out.

Let me give you an example on ES (S&P500 e-minis), the instrument I day trade on a daily basis:

Suppose you bought 4 contracts at 2050, if you like to scale out, your strategy might be to take half off at +2 points and then another contract off (25%) at +3 points holding the last contract until market takes you out. For this example we will suppose market gave you 10 points, so, you'd have made a total of: 4.25 points on FULL SIZE (half at +2, 1/4 at +3 and the last 1/4 at +10).

While those who bought and held full size have made a FULL 10 points, or more than double what you have made. If the average STOP size they use is 2 points then they'd have to be stopped out 5 times in a row to give all the profits they made back while the one who scaled out will give it all back in only 2 trades that they lose...

If you know that your edge gives you a win ratio of 60~70% then there is no reason to scale out. We DO NOT KNOW which trades will work before we trade them, some will work and some will fail, as traders we need to accept and live with that, that's the name of the game, there is no system that has 100% of winners.

Trading is not about one or two good trades but about a good SEQUENCE of well executed trades, our job as traders is to take all setups our edge tells us to take and manage the risk accordingly, that is all there is to it.

You will know if your edge is good after you've taken: 10, 20, 30, 100 trades, and not 2 or 3 trades.

So, in 2015 do the right thing and take ALL TRADES on your favorite instrument, unless you don't have an edge.

If you don't have an edge I can teach you a good methodology that you can expect to work on 70-90% of the trades, if you day trade ES or swing trade currencies (EURUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY).

It's a really simple learn and use, all visual. When you sign up you will join us in our trading room where I make the calls on the instruments I mentioned above and I show you exactly what I'm looking at on the charts to take that trade, you will learn when to pull the trigger exactly the same way I do to be consistently profitable.

Check our website to know more about the system and feel free to send me email with questions in case you have any doubts/questions on what we do. Click here: Diamond Setups

Let's make it happen in 2015, you can do it!

Happy New Year!

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