Saturday, April 26, 2014

Statistics don't lie, play by the rules

We've been trading using the Diamond Setups system for nearly 4 years now, we know the the winning ratio ranges from 60 to 80%, market repeats patterns over and over again and we profit from that information, we take ALL setups that trigger according to our own trading style, be it scalping, day or swing trading.

OK. Now let's take a look at an example of a typical trading week on ES (S&P500 E-minis) using one of our day trading setups:

Day traders usually get at least 2 trades a day, sometimes 3 or even 4, but usually 2, so let's use an average of 2 as our example for a normal week.

One trading week would give us 10 trades, if we take them all we will be profitable on 6 to 8 of them but we'll use 6 here as our example.

We know that profits range from 3 to 7 points most of the time, sometimes we will see 10+ points trades, in our example let's use 5 points as our average on the winners.

On the losing side our max STOP is 3.50 points, but sometimes we use much less than that, so, as an average we'll use 3 points. Now let's do the math:

From the 10 trades on the week we would get:

6 winning trades at +5 each = +30 points

4 losing trades at -3 each = -12 points

On ES each point is equivalent to US$ 50.00 profit/loss, so 2 contracts would be US$ 100.00/point.

Result = +18 points on the week, if you trade 2 contracts, then you'd make: +US$ 1,800.00

If we play a little bit with the numbers, even if we make only 3 points instead of the 5 in the example above, which is the minimum we make on each winning trade, we would still be up +6 points on the week, or +US$ 600.00 if we trade just 2 contracts.

Trading is really not easy at all but if you apply a winning set of rules and follow them religiously, you will be profitable week in, week out.

Have a great trading week, best of luck.

In spite of your fear, do what you have to do. - Chin Ning Chu

Sunday, April 13, 2014

The Diamond Setups: Setup #2

If I had to mention only one of the characteristics of the Diamond Setups I would definitely say: Simplicity.

Let's talk a bit about the Diamond Setup #2 for instance: it's based on 1 chart only (I can't say which chart here, part of our little secret) and once price closes twice above/below the "key levels" it's the signal we need to take a short or long trade, depending on the time of the day we will use the "trend in play" to make a decision on which side the chances would be bigger, for instance, in a trend down day we'd look for a short entry.

When using the DS system we always have a t least 2 different approaches as to entering trades and using STOPs: Conservative X Aggressive.

Once decided which style fits better your OWN personality then use same approach on ALL trades you take, and as we know as traders, sometimes we will get stopped out and lose some money, that's just part of the game, no problem, the setups are designed to be profitable in the long run, from every 10 trades (or 100 trades if you prefer) we will be wrong on 20 to 30%, but on the 70 to 80% of the time we'll be right we make up the losses and soooooo much more!

As an example of a trade on ES (S&P500 e-minis), depending on your style you will use a STOP order from 6 (conservative) to max 10 ticks (aggressive).

So, you take the trade and market gives you say 6 points, or 24 ticks in profits, now you'd have to be wrong 4 times in a row, if trading the conservative style, to give all profits back, and I'm giving an example of 6 points only, but lately, with the higher volatility, it gives much more than that on a single trade.

One of the biggest problems I see in struggling traders is the "fear to pull the trigger" that keeps them away from being successful in this business...

Now tell me, would you be afraid to pull the trigger after a winner as in the example above knowing that the worse that can happen to your trade now is to lose 10 ticks?

Rules profit, make sure you use a system that fits your personality and leave opinions/emotions out of your trading.

Best of luck.